Notes From Class...March 17th, 2008

Individual Level voting behavior
Three Primary Theories:
1. Sociological- Based on the demographics of the individual voter i.e. region, income, etc.
(1st Florida Primary ( Presidential) 1901, it was for the 1904 Presidential election)
2. Psychological- Based on group affiliations with party as a dominant consideration
3. Economic - Based on an evaluation of candidate performance and issue positions. ( Sometimes called rational choice) It is not a reference to money, it is based on rational decision making.

Wattenberg argues that the three theories interact:
Demographic characteristics lead to Psychological affiliations and biases which modify the Evaluation of Candidates and issues when determine voting.

BEYOND PARTISANSHIP
- Candidate image - " Character evaluations"
(Part of the economic theory)
- Most relevant in high profile races such as Presidential races
-Influence voter Turnout
( Polls showed that 51% of the people would vote no on Amendment 1. It was actually 60% yes, 40% no. The pollsters had a theory that the people were lying to the pollsters about what they would vote. But they didn’t take into account all of the Independents and the fact that the Democrats weren’t campaigning at the time!)
( Why do Florida Legislators let the people decide on "high speed rails". They do that so that when the legislation goes sour, there is only the people to blame for it! Because the people vote on it, and when it goes south, then the legislators won’t be blamed for it!)

Party Image:
-Considerable regional variation
- Retrospective judgements are more widely used
Issues:
- Pro-life, anti-gun control, and retrospective economic judgements are three issues positions that explain a measurable amount of voting behavior.

IRONIES OF PARTY IN THE ELECTORATE
1. On the one hand:
-67% of the people say they believe that there should be a viable third voting option ( from the NES of 2002)
2. On the other hand:
-ON election day, third party voting averages around 3%
3. On the one hand:
- It is common for people to complain that there is no difference in the parties
4. On the other hand:
- GOP control is statistically linked to lower taxes and less social welfare